The Cybertruck by Tesla has been met with skepticism by analysts, forecasting agencies, and even some auto manufacturers. Many had initially dismissed electric vehicles (EVs) as a niche product, only to be proven wrong as the market share of EVs in the US surpassed 5% last year. However, despite this progress, there still seems to be a blind spot when it comes to the potential success of the Cybertruck.
ARK Investment Management LLC challenges the low expectations for the Cybertruck, suggesting that traditional automakers could find themselves in trouble if it disrupts their profit center. Currently, most automakers fund the development and sales of unprofitable EVs using profits from their gas-powered truck sales. If the Cybertruck gains significant market share, it could pose a threat to their established revenue streams.
While the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has been adjusting its forecasts for EV market share, predicting it to plateau at around 14% in 2040, ARK’s research suggests a more optimistic outlook. They argue that global EV market share is likely to scale to over 70% by 2027, with the US not far behind. This implies a massive shift in the automotive industry, and the success of the Cybertruck could be a driving force behind this change.
ARK points to the fact that the Cybertruck has already received 1.5 million reservations, indicating strong demand for the vehicle. Early Google Trends data also suggests that the Cybertruck could be as mainstream as Tesla’s Model Y. In fact, searches for the Cybertruck on Google exceeded those for the Model Y, particularly in regions with a strong affinity for trucks. This suggests that there is a genuine desire among consumers to purchase the Cybertruck.
It is important for analysts and forecasting agencies to consider the implications of the Cybertruck’s potential success. While they may be hesitant to forecast exponential growth in the EV market, ignoring the disruptive power of the Cybertruck could be a mistake for traditional automakers. The rise of EVs has already challenged the dominance of gas-powered vehicles, and the Cybertruck has the potential to further accelerate this transition.
The low expectations for the Cybertruck may be misguided. The EV market has defied previous forecasts, and the success of the Cybertruck could be a game-changer for the automotive industry. As demand for electric vehicles continues to grow, traditional automakers should take notice and adapt their strategies accordingly. The era of electric transportation is upon us, and the Cybertruck could be at the forefront of this revolution.
